9/10/2023 0 Comments Backblaze hard drive failure rates![]() ![]() Looking back at the AFR by quarter chart above, this makes sense as the failure rate increases beginning in year four. The life expectancy decreases at a fairly stable rate of 2% to 2.5% a year for the first four years, then the decrease begins to accelerate. Klein plotted the survival rate, the proportion of drives still alive, against the age of the drives. Let’s see how close we can get to predicting the median lifespan of a new drive given all the data we’ve collected over the years. That is the age at which half of the drives fail. The number that should be able to compute is the median lifespan of a new drive. What Klein wants to figure out is the half-life of the drive: So how long do drives last? Keep reading. Today, about 90% of the drives we own have lasted four years and 65% are living longer than six years. For example, in our original report we reported that 78% of the drives we purchased were living longer than four years. This gives us more data to review and lets us extend our projections. Today’s study includes data from over 200,000 disk drives, many of which have survived six years and longer. ![]() The initial drive life study was done with 25,000 disk drives and about four years of data. Last December Klein posted How Long Do Disk Drives Last?, updating a version posted in 2013: For example, the 10TB Seagate drive seems more interested in moving into the Retiree quadrant over the next quarter or so and as such its replacement priority could be increased. This chart can also give us a visual clue as to the direction of the annualized failure rate over time for a given drive model. And that drive was not alone the 8TB Seagate drives (models: ST8000NM0055 and ST8000DM002) experienced the same behavior. For example, who could have predicted that the 6TB Seagate drive (model: ST6000DX000) would have ended up in the Winners quadrant given its less than auspicious start in 2015. Interestingly, each of the six models currently in quadrant II has a different backstory. Muddlers are young drives that are performing less well.Įven more interesting is Klein's second version of the qudrant chart, featuring only the "Winners":Įach drive model is represented by a snake-like line (Snakes on a plane!?) which shows the AFR of the drive model as the average age of the fleet increased over time.Challengers are drives that are currently performing well but are still young.Winners are drives that have performed well for a long time. ![]()
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